NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9445 (N24W54), still the
most active spot group visible, produced a C9/1f flare at 0055 UTC,
the day's largest event. The region retains a modest degree of
magnetic complexity. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9445 retains the potential to produce a small
M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC, reached a maximum of 30 pfu
at 08/0755 UTC. Those fluxes are now slowly declining to more normal
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 129
Predicted   09 May-11 May  125/120/115
90 Day Mean        08 May 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  010/008-005/007-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05