NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 May 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 May 01 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class x-ray event from Region 9433 (N19W80). This was an M2/Sf flare that occurred at 01/1917 UTC. Regions 9441 (N06W16) and 9445 (N26E37) produced C-class x-ray and optical sub-flares during the period. Region 9445 grew in area and spot count today. The Penticton 10.7 cm Flux of 210 sfu was enhanced by the M2 flare. The value is more likely closer to the Penticton morning observation of 185 sfu. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue to be moderate. Region 9433 is capable of producing an M-class event before rotating completely over the western limb. Region 9441 and 9445 are also showing potential for isolated M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing chance of active conditions on the third day of the period, due to favorably positioned coronal holes. III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 70/70/50 Class X 15/15/05 Proton 15/15/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 210 Predicted 02 May-04 May 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 01 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 001/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 010/012-010/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
