NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Apr 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Apr 24 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9433 (N17E02) has produced several M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M3/1n at 24/0700 UTC. This region has grown significantly and has a white light area around 1000 millionths. The region continues to retain an F-type spot group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. The ongoing development of Region 9433 suggest a major flare is possible sometime through the period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is an increasing chance for a proton event as Region 9433 evolves. III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Apr 194 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 200/210/210 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 166 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 010/010-010/020-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
