NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Apr 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Apr 02 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.   A pair of Class X
flares occurred at 02/1004 UTC and 02/1058 UTC.  The first was in
Region 9393, now at N16W69.  The second was likely in Region 9393
but it may have been near the southeast limb.   A coronal mass
ejection extending 180 degrees in longitude along the west limb
occurred more-or-less in conjunction with the x-ray events.   Region
9393 is little changed in appearance as it begins to rotate from
view over the limb although its apparent area is decreasing.  
Sunspots have rotated into view at S21E58 (Region 9414) but so far
the spots appear to be simply structured.  As the region becomes
more visible, further information about its structure will be
available.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  The possibility of major flares remains high in
Region 9393.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly active.   A very small proton
enhancement of >10 MeV and >100 MeV particles occurred beginning at
about 02/1000 UTC.  Fluxes have become constant at less than event
thresholds.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.    The
possibility remains of a proton event if further major events occur
in Region 9393
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    80/75/75
Class X    35/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 228
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  220/210/200
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  026/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  030/025-035/040-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                28/28/35
Minor storm           18/15/12
Major-severe storm    08/08/08
B.  High Latitudes
Active                28/28/28
Minor storm           18/25/20
Major-severe storm    08/08/08