NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Mar 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Three M-class and two C9
events occurred during the period. The largest events were an M2/2N
from Region 9393 (N20E39) and an M2/1N from new Region 9401
(N22E55). Overall, activity increased noticeably during the
reporting period. Five new regions were numbered: 9398 (N20W10),
9399 (S30W09), 9400 (N11E20), 9401 (N22E55), and 9402 (N17E15).
Several different regions produced activity during the day and it
appears that the sun is entering into a highly active period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance of isolated event class events being
produced from several of the different active regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single,
isolated, mid-latitude period of active conditions occurring at
25/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, barring an Earth-directed CME.
Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 217
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 220/220/220
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 006/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 010/018-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01