NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Mar 22 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Three optically uncorrelated M1 flares occurred during the period, at 22/0515, 0821, and 1319 UTC respectively. The M1 flare at 0821 UTC had an associated Type II radio sweep. Active Region 9373 (S05W92) had mostly rotated over the western limb by the end of the period. No new regions were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. The ACE spacecraft recorded a shock at the L1 point at 22/1250 UTC. This event initiated a 12 nT sudden impulse as recorded by the Boulder station. Minor storming was reported at mid-latitudes during the period of 22/1500-1800 UTC. Activity then returned to unsettled conditions for the remainder of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Effects from a high speed coronal stream may be expected during the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar Class M 60/60/60 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Mar 183 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 015/015-010/010-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
