NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of
the period was a C5 flare at 11/0856Z. Activity was observed in
newly numbered Region 9376 (S13E72), and in Region 9368 (N25W73)
during this X-ray event. Region 9376 produced additional minor
C-class flares. The level of activity in active Regions 9368 and
9372 (S16w76) tapered off considerably this period as both regions
approach the west limb. New Region 9377 (S10E01) was also numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is still possible from
Regions 9368 or 9372 as they rotate around the west limb. An
isolated M-class is also possible from newly numbered Region 9376,
and Region 9373 (S08E48) as it continues to slowly develop.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons continue at moderately enhanced levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 158
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  008/008-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01