NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 11 0000 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
::::::: Corrected Copy :::::::
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 9368 (N24W59) produced
an M6/1b flare at 10/0405Z, with moderate radio bursts and a Type II
sweep. A CME was also observed from this event. This moderately
complex region also produced a C9/1n flare at 09/2324Z. Region 9272
(S36W64) continues to develop and produced several minor C-class
flares throughout the period. A C6 event was observed at 10/1622Z
and was likely associated with a CME observed off the SE limb. New
Regions 9374 (S19E50) and 9375 (S16W46) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Continued C-class and isolated M-class activity is
expected from Regions 9368, 9372, and 9370 (N10W38).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled conditions between 10/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons continue at moderately enhanced levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated,
high latitude active periods are possible throughout the three day
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 160
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  010/015-008/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01