NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 24 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with only two weak C-class X-ray
flares.   No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Fingers of a
southern coronal hole extend far enough north to bring a increase in
solar wind speeds by late on day two.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    10/10/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 137
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01