NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two new regions were
numbered, 9351 (S21W42) and 9352 (S23E63).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels for most
of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 135
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/015-010/012-005/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01