NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate, another M flare was
observed from Region 9313 ( S07E41).  This event, an M1/2f, began at
20/1834UTC and was accompanied by minor radio emissions, including a
type II sweep.  The flare developed into parallel ribbons and the
filament running North from the region erupted during the event.  A
CME was also observed.  The leader spots of this region, although
small, are of mixed polarities resulting in a gamma magnetic
configuration.   A new region appears to be rotating on to the disk
near S07.  A small filament disappeared near S18 E09 sometime after
19/2137UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Additional M class flares are possible from Region
9313.  In addition, several regions, including Region 9289 (S06
L=205) are due to return over the next couple days.  Major flares
are possible if development in Region 9313 continues or if these
regions return active.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled.  A brief
period of active conditions occurred around  0900UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled early in the period. 
There is a good chance of active conditions later in the period as a
result of recent activity in Region 9313.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 153
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  005/005-005/005-015/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01