NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 9289
(S06E43) produced two M1/1f flares, at 29/0223Z and at 29/1848Z.
Both flares were accompanied by minor centimetric radio bursts. This
region appears slightly more complex than yesterday and still
contains white light areal coverage in excess of 700 millionths.
Region 9283 (S12W16) produced occasional low C-class flares, the
most important being a long duration C4/1f flare at 29/0211Z. New
Region 9291 (S13E34) emerged quite rapidly today in close proximity
to complex Region 9289.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels. Region 8289 has good potential for
M-class flares. Regions 9280 and 9283 may produce an isolated
low-level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with one active
period observed between 29/0300 - 0600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field will
likely continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 182
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  185/185/175
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01