NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels; however,
frequent C-class events occurred throughout the period. Region 9238
(S22W48) produced a long duration C5/1f flare and CME at 23/0547Z.
Region 8231 (S23W62) produced several C-class flares, the largest
being an impulsive C7/1n flare at 23/1424Z. A long duration C7 flare
and CME in Region 8239 (S21E49) began at around 23/1930Z and remains
in progress. Region 9236 (N21E06), though not as active as
yesterday, retains moderate complexity and displayed increased
activity late in the period. New region 9241 (N21W19) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9231 and 9236 will still be the likely source of
isolated M-class activity. Activity near the east limb may also
result in M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 23/03 - 06Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
two. Field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm
levels on day three due to the CME observed today at 23/0547Z.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 205
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  210/210/205
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  010/010-012/015-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/50
Minor storm           10/20/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           10/25/35
Major-severe storm    05/15/20