NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low, with only minor C-class
events observed for a second straight day.  Although regions 9231
(N24W23), 39-spot Fki beta-gamma, and 9235 (N13E06), 23-spot Eai
beta-gamma, have been relatively quiet since each produced an M1
flare on 18 Nov, both retain the potential for further M-class
activity..  New region 9238 (S23W08), 3-spot Cro beta, was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with isolated M-class events still probable from either
region 9231 or 9235.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled at all latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 174
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  180/180/185
90 Day Mean        20 Nov  171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05