NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9218 (N19E26) produced
several minor C-class events.  Region 9218 (N19E26) grew
significantly in area since yesterday but maintained a simple beta
magnetic configuration.  An EPL occurred on the northwest limb at
approximately 02/1744Z.  Further analysis is required as data
becomes available.  SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an earth-directed
full halo CME from a filament eruption east of Region 9214 
yesterday at approximately S17E39.  The CME was first visible above
the SE limb at 01/1626Z.  The imagery suggests most of the material
and energy associated with the CME is directed to the southeast. 
However, evidence of a weak full halo is clear.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled the first day.  Due to the
expected arrival of the earth-directed full halo CME mentioned
above, active conditions are expected on the second day of the
period.  Minor storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes. 
The geomagnetic field is expected to decrease to predominantly
unsettled conditions toward the end of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 196
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  200/200/195
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  008/010-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05