NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 22 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past day was a long-duration C3 peaking at 22/0231 UTC. Optical activity during this event included a SF flare in Region 9203 (N13W43) and an EPL on the southeast limb near S30E90. Region 9199 (N09W31) has decayed since yesterday and Region 9201 (N17E06) appears to have simplified a little. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class activity is expected to continue and an M-class flare in Regions 9199 or 9201 is possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 22/0900-1200 UTC period. Afterwards the field has been at unsettled to active levels in response to a high-speed coronal hole stream. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Oct 160 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/018-010/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
