NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1
X-ray flare occurred at 12/2049 UTC and was in progress as the
period ended. The source of the flare appeared to be Region 9182
(N06W66). Activity was at low levels prior to this flare with
isolated, low-level C-class flares from Region 9182. Region 9182
continued to show a slight mixing of polarities in the vicinity of
its leader spots, but no further development was evident. Minor
growth was noted in Regions 9190 (S18E20) and 9192 (S13W12). Both
regions were small and simply structured. Four new regions were
numbered today: 9194 (S13E60), 9195 (N14W70), 9196 (S31W45), and
9197 (N26E70).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9182 may produce additional isolated
M-class flares. Chances for M-class flare activity are expected to
increase beginning 14 October due to the return of old Region 9169
(N12, L = 080).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The CME from the long-duration
C6/1F flare of 09 October is now expected to arrive by early 13
October followed by active to major storm conditions. Activity is
expected to decline to unsettled to active levels on 14 October as
the CME effects subside. There will be a slight chance for high flux
levels at greater than 2 MeV late in the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    30/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 163
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  170/180/195
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  035/035-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           40/10/10
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           40/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/01/01