NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 11 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9182 (N03W51) produced isolated C-class subflares including a long-duration C2/Sf flare at 11/0627 UTC. This region has gradually developed during the last two days. Minor growth was also noted in Region 9190 (S17E35) and newly numbered Region 9192 (S14E02). New Region 9193 (N10W04) was also numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.There will be chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9182. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with brief active periods. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels on 12 - 13 October due to an expected CME passage. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 14 October. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the latter half of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct Class M 30/30/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Oct 151 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 150/155/165 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 179 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 035/035-020/025-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/25 Minor storm 40/20/10 Major-severe storm 20/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/40/30 Minor storm 40/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/15/01
