NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Region 9182 (N02W18)
produced isolated subflares, the largest of which was a C5/1n at
09/1316 UTC. The subflares occurred near an area of emerging flux
just to the west of this region. The remaining regions were stable.
No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
9182.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Unsettled to active periods are
possible during the first half of the period due to weak coronal
hole effects. Otherwise, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 141
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  140/145/150
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  001/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01