NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 08 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9181 (S29W13) produced today's largest flare, a C3/1f flare at 07/2341Z. This region appears to be decaying. Region 9176 (S06W79) produced a few subflares today but also is slowly decaying as it approaches west limb. Four small regions emerged or rotated into view today: Region 9187 (N21W07), Region 9188 (S12E32), Region 9189 (N19E54), and Region 9190 (S20E74). These regions are all small and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. An increase to active levels is expected sometime late tomorrow and is expected to continue partway through the third day. The increase in activity is forecast because of a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Oct 149 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 182 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 002/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 012/015-020/025-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/35 Minor storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/40/35 Minor storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/10/05
