NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 02 2214 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 9177 (N31W54)
produced an M1/1n flare at 02/1801Z; another uncorrelated M1
occurred at 02/0013Z.  Region 9176 (S09E05) produced a C4/Sf at
02/0257Z that was followed by a faint CME seen in LASCO imagery. 
New regions 9181 (S32E64) and 9182 (S03E72) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Quiet conditions
predominated, with unsettled to active conditions from 12Z to 21Z
during a prolonged period of southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storming on day
two and three. Effects of a recurrent coronal hole are expected to
begin tomorrow.  One of the many solar events of the past two days,
including today's CME, could bring transient related activity on day
two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 203
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  200/200/190
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  012/012-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
VII.  Comments
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