NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 September 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Sep 14 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 258 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 SEP 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 9166 (S13E71) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 14/0627Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS INHIBITING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THIS REGION, BUT FREQUENT SURGING AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS SUGGEST A MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION ROTATING INTO VIEW. REGION 9165 (N13E13) DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. FROM A SIMPLE SMALL THREE SPOT BETA CONFIGURATION YESTERDAY, THIS REGION EVOLVED INTO A BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP WITH OVER 20 SPOTS COVERING NEARLY 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SLIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO NOTED IN REGIONS 9156 (S26W53), AND 9162 (S32W63). IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE EMERGENCE OF REGION 9165, AND NEW REGION 9166. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 18 PFU. THE PCA THAT BEGAN NEAR 12/1830Z, ENDED AT 14/1532Z. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SOON EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE 12 SEP, M1/2N FLARE WILL LIKELY IMPACT EARLY ON DAY ONE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF DAY ONE AND RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD END ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH AN ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE EXPECTED CME. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP CLASS M 10/10/15 CLASS X 01/01/05 PROTON 99/30/05 PCAF IN PROGRESS IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 14 SEP 151 PREDICTED 15 SEP-17 SEP 155/160/170 90 DAY MEAN 14 SEP 177 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP 010/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP 050/045-015/012-008/012 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/35/20 MINOR STORM 40/30/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 40/20/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/40/25 MINOR STORM 45/40/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 45/20/10 COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 0CT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASES VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
