NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 September 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Sep 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 245 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9140 (N11W67) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C9/1N AT 1820Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
TYPE II SWEEP. AN ASSOCIATED  CME WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LIMB IN THE LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW, BEGINNING AT 1854Z.  REGION 9140
APPEARS TO BE DECLINING. REGION 9143 (S18W32) ALSO SEEMS TO BE ON
THE DECLINE, BUT DID MANAGE TO PRODUCE A C1/SF AT 0606Z. REGION 9149
(N14E18), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK, CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY,
BUT REMAINS VERY STABLE. TWO NEW, SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS: 9153 (S33E16) AND 9154 (S21E44).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY
LEVELS CONTINUE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ONGOING, BUT WEAKENING
HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE CONTINUE TO BE HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 SEP 158
PREDICTED   02 SEP-04 SEP  155/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        01 SEP 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05