NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 22 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 235 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED. A MODERATE DURATION C2 OCCURRED FROM 22/0829-0939Z AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE NORTHWEST LIMB. A SMALL REGION ROTATED ONTO THE DISK NEAR N08E70 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9140. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS VERY LOW DURING THE PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG CLASS M 05/05/05 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 22 AUG 144 PREDICTED 23 AUG-25 AUG 140/135/135 90 DAY MEAN 22 AUG 183 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG 009/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG 004/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG 008/012-010/012-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/30/20 MINOR STORM 05/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/30/20 MINOR STORM 05/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/05/01
