NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 234 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C4/1F AT
21/0538Z FROM REGION 9125.  MODERATE GROWTH CONTINUED IN REGION
9139.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS EVENT
POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OBSERVED FROM 21/0900Z - 21/1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 AUG 151
PREDICTED   22 AUG-24 AUG  145/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        21 AUG 183
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 AUG  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 AUG-24 AUG  010/010-010/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01