NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 233 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 9125 DISPLAYED
SIGNIFICANT DECAY.  NEW REGION 9139 (S11E23) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS EVENT
POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 AUG-23 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 AUG 152
PREDICTED   21 AUG-23 AUG  145/140/130
90 DAY MEAN        20 AUG 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 AUG  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG  005/008-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 AUG-23 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01