NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 229 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED TODAY. REGION 9125 (N25W11) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND
MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX OF THE 13 SPOTTED REGIONS. HOWEVER, THIS
REGION ONLY PRODUCED TWO OPTICAL SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT
APPROXIMATELY 16/1330UT AND REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/05
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 AUG 186
PREDICTED   17 AUG-19 AUG  185/180/180
90 DAY MEAN        16 AUG 187
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05