NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 220 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED, NONE OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH REPORTED OPTICAL
FLARES. REGION 9114 (N12E14) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES.
THIS REGION HAS DECLINED SOMEWHAT IN SUNSPOT AREA AND COMPLEXITY.
NEW REGION 9122 (N21E47) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 AUG 167
PREDICTED   08 AUG-10 AUG  170/175/180
90 DAY MEAN        07 AUG 191
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 AUG  015/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01