NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 22 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 204 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  THE MOST ENERGETIC
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M3 CLASS EVENT BEGINNING AT 22/1117Z IN
REGION 9085 (N14W63).  THE EVENT WAS COMPARATIVELY LONG LIVED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION.  FLARES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN REGIONS 9087 (S12W39), 9090 (N12W07), AND 9095 (N21W55).
THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS ARE 9087 (S12W39), A GAMMA-DELTA, REGION
9090 (N12W07), A BETA-GAMMA, AND 9097 (N06E25), A BETA-GAMMA.  NEW
REGIONS HAVE APPEARED AND BEEN NUMBERED AS 9100 (S31E58) AND 9101
(S16E68).  A LONG, NARROW NEGATIVE-POLARITY CORONAL HOLE EXTENDS
FROM APPROXIMATELY W35 TO E65 AND BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY N30 TO N45
DEGREES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS.  A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 22/1320Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 17 PFU
AT 22/1405Z.   FLUX LEVELS REMAINED NEAR 10 PFU AT FORECAST ISSUE
TIME.  THE PROTON EVENT APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE AT
22/1117Z.  AN ASSOCIATED MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF PROTONS WITH ENERGY
GREATER THAN 100 MEV BEGAN AT ABOUT 22/1200Z.  THE GREATER THAN 100
MEV INCREASE DID NOT MEET SEC EVENT CRITERIA AND HAD RETURNED TO
NEAR-BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
CLASS M    85/80/75
CLASS X    35/30/20
PROTON     35/30/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUL 251
PREDICTED   23 JUL-25 JUL  245/235/230
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUL 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL  020/025-020/025-012/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                28/28/28
MINOR STORM           13/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    06/06/06
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05