NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 July 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Jul 11 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 193 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUL 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N19E31) PRODUCED AN M5/2B EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT 10/2142Z. AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS ALSO OBSERVED. AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION/CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT THIS TIME FROM NEAR N45E73. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND MAINTAINS A COMPLEX DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IN OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGION 9077 ALSO PRODUCED AN M4 AT 11/1141Z FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN X1 AT 11/1310Z, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG DURATION 1B FLARE. A LARGE CENTIMETRIC BURST ALSO OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE INCLUDING A 1600 SFU TENFLARE. REGION 9070 (N18W31) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 11/1958Z. THIS REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A MODERATELY SIZED AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION AND IS CURRENTLY 420 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGIONS 9081 (N03E69), 9082 (S12E39), AND 9083 (S18W21). IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR X-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM. DISTURBED CONDITIONS CONTINUED THIS PERIOD FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SHOCK AT 10/0558Z. A SECOND SHOCK WAS OBSERVED ON THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 11/1125Z, ENHANCING THE EXISTING STORM. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THIS MORNING'S X1 FLARE. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE ON DAY TWO THROUGH DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT CME'S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD ON DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL CLASS M 80/80/80 CLASS X 30/30/30 PROTON 20/20/20 PCAF YELLOW IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 11 JUL 225 PREDICTED 12 JUL-14 JUL 220/210/205 90 DAY MEAN 11 JUL 182 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL 018/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL 028/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL 020/025-025/025-050/050 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 60/60/20 MINOR STORM 20/20/40 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/10/40 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/50/20 MINOR STORM 30/30/40 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 20/20/40
