NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 192 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS PRODUCED
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 9077 (N16E44) PRODUCED A
LONG DURATION M1/SF AT 10/1056Z AND ANOTHER M1/1N AT 10/1426Z.  THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS
DEVELOPED A DELTA CONFIGURATION SINCE YESTERDAY.  REGION 9069
(S17W39) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/1838Z AND SPOTLESS REGION 9066
(N12W68) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/2005Z.  NEW REGION 9080 (N25E68)
WAS NUMBERED EARLY IN THE PERIOD TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.   REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED  X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  ACTIVE CONDITIONS
FOLLOWED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT DATA AT
10/0558Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUL 215
PREDICTED   11 JUL-13 JUL  220/220/210
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUL 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUL  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/30/20
MINOR STORM           25/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01