NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 10 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 162 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z

TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 9026 (N23W39) PRODUCED

AN M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z.  THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 550 SFU

TENFLARE AND A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 700 KM/S.  REGION 9026

HAD BEEN IN A SIGNIFICANT STAGE OF DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY AND WAS AN

EAO BETA GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 8 SPOTS WHEN THE EVENT ABOVE

OCCURRED.  OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING

THE PERIOD.  NEW REGION 9037 (N18E51) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE.  REGION 9033 (N22E18) NOW APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST

POTENTIAL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF M-CLASS EVENTS.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM.  AT 09/2350,

DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT DISPLAYED WHAT WAS PRESUMED TO BE THE

ARRIVAL OF THE FAINT FULL HALO OBSERVED BACK ON 7 JUNE FROM THE

X1/3B EVENT.  AS A RESULT, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED ACTIVE TO

MINOR STORM LEVELS FROM 10/0600Z – 10/1500Z.  THE M-CLASS EVENT

DESCRIBED IN PART IA PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT GREATER THAN 10 AND

100 MEV FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.  THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV

CROSSED EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 10/1750Z.  THE 100 MEV PEAK FLUX

WAS 1.6 PFU AT 10/1755Z AND DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD, ENDING AT

10/1830Z.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 10/1805Z

AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV

ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE OF

ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.  THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY

INTENSIFY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVES

AT THE EARTH FROM THE M5/3B EVENT EARLIER TODAY.  FURTHER ANALYSIS

OF DATA, NOT YET AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME, IS REQUIRED TO DETERMINE IF

AN EARTH DIRECTED CME IS IN PROGRESS.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN

CLASS M    70/70/70

CLASS X    15/15/15

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       RED

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           10 JUN 180

PREDICTED   11 JUN-13 JUN  185/190/200

90 DAY MEAN        10 JUN 188

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUN  004/008

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  020/025

PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  012/012-015/015-015/015

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/25/25

MINOR STORM           10/15/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                40/30/30

MINOR STORM           15/20/20

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05