NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 May 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 May 11 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 132 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAY 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z

TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN

OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 X-RAY FLARE.  THERE WERE ALSO A NUMBER OF

SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY AND OPTICAL SF FLARES.  NEW REGIONS 8995

(S19E00), 8996 (S18E77), AND 8997 (S14E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8989 (N17W14), 8990 (N14E05), 8993 (S23W19)

ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK M FLARES. NEW REGION 8996 ALSO

BEARS WATCHING.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT

IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THE 8 MAY FILAMENT

ERUPTION EARLY ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS STILL NOT BEEN ANY

STRONG INDICATION OF ITS APPROACH IN THE ACE SATELLITE DATA. EFFECTS

OF A SMALL RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED LATE 12 TO EARLY 13

MAY.  YESTERDAY’S FILAMENT ERUPTION AND LONG DURATION FLARE PRODUCED

A PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO.  AN ASSOCIATED SHOCK IS

EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    05/05/05

PROTON     05/05/05

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           11 MAY 178

PREDICTED   12 MAY-14 MAY  190/195/200

90 DAY MEAN        11 MAY 186

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/007

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  005/007

PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  020/020-020/020-015/015

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/30/30

MINOR STORM           15/15/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/30/30

MINOR STORM           20/20/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05