NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 082 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8910 (N13W61) PRODUCED
AN X1/2N EVENT AT 1848Z. THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED TYPES II AND IV
SWEEP, AND A BURST OF 500 SFU AT 10 CM. THE REGION HAD GENERATED AN
M1/1N FLARE EARLIER, AT 0118Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS BEGINNING TO HAMPER
ANALYSIS OF 8910, BUT DATA SUGGEST IT STILL TO BE LARGE AND
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. REGIONS 8917 (N20W35) AND 8918 (N32W53), BOTH
NEAR REGION 8910, GENERATED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8923
(S27E43) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED
INCREASED FROM 400 TO 600 KM/S DURING THE DAY, PRESUMABLY RELATED TO
A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH-SPEED
STREAM EFFECTS SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF YELLOW
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 22 MAR 234
PREDICTED 23 MAR-25 MAR 240/240/245
90 DAY MEAN 22 MAR 175
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR 002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR 010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR 015/015-015/015-015/025
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 50/50/50
MINOR STORM 10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 60/60/60
MINOR STORM 20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
