Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1057Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 04/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 335 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 115
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 017/025-012/014-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/50/40