Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 01/1151Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6971 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 098
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 100/102/108
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10