Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 28/0100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0447Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4931 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 096
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 010/010-006/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30