Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 23/1858Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/1920Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 121
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 120/115/110
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/008-010/012-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/50/50