Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/1623Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 21/2105Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 129
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 007/008-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/10/35