Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 20/0618Z from Region 3038 (N15W07). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 20/1624Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2970 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 137
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 135/125/121
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/55