Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/0020Z from Region 3035 (S18E01). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 17/2343Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1413 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 140
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 141/137/134
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/10