Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/2227Z from Region 3030 (N20E52). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 12/1413Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 12/1012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 121
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 005/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25