Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1225Z from Region 3029 (S17E48). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic reached 7 nT at 05/1854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1704Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5732 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 099
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/10/10