Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 30/2235Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5303 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 098
Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 098/098/098
90 Day Mean 31 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 009/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20