Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 29/1931Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 888 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 098
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 29 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10