Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 14/2016Z from Region 3010 (S15E48). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 14/2100Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 14/1844Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 May, 17 May) and unsettled to active levels on day two (16 May).

III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 153
Predicted 15 May-17 May 154/150/148
90 Day Mean 14 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 009/012-013/014-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/25