Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 13/1009Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/0026Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1736Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 May, 15 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 May).

III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 150
Predicted 14 May-16 May 150/150/146
90 Day Mean 13 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 010/012-009/012-013/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/35
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/45