Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 10/1355Z from Region 3006 (S30W07). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 316 km/s at 10/0335Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/1257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 306 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 20/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 116
Predicted 11 May-13 May 116/116/116
90 Day Mean 10 May 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 006/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20