Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/1942Z from Region 2994 (N14W12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 23/1422Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 533 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 160
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 008/008-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20