Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 22/1325Z from Region 2993 (N19W04). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 22/1439Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0812Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 345 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 163
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/30